NEW YORK · 17TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
A source-backed polling record—not a forecast. Updated October 16, 2026; historical records retained.
Newer poll: Emerson College Polling / PIX11 News
Fieldwork September 27–29, 2026. Conley 48%, Lawler 46%, undecided 7% (rounding may prevent totals of exactly 100%). Emerson surveyed 400 likely voters; the reported credibility interval is ±4.9 percentage points. PIX11 News sponsored the survey. Interviews used text-to-web and an online panel, with demographic and registration weighting. The two-point gap is within the stated uncertainty and is not a forecast.
Original release, methods and full results →
Historical poll: co/efficient, July 23 memo
Lawler 50% · Conley 45% · undecided 5%. The pollster’s memo is dated July 23, 2026. It reports 1,292 likely general-election voters, mobile text responses and landline interviews, weighting, and a ±2.71 percentage-point margin of error. It does not state the full interviewing date range; the memo date should not be substituted for fieldwork dates.
The memo says the survey was not sponsored by a candidate or candidate committee; it does not identify a funding source. That statement alone does not establish political neutrality. This is historical polling newly added to our guide, not a September survey.
Read the original co/efficient memo (PDF) →
Comparing the records
The two releases favor different candidates. Differences in timing, sampling and questionnaire design mean they should not be treated as a measured swing between identical surveys. Neither result is an election forecast.
Earlier poll on record
FM3 Research · fieldwork June 27–July 1, 2026 · released July 8, 2026. House Majority PAC’s release reports Cait Conley at 51% and Mike Lawler at 45%, a six-point Conley advantage in that survey.
Read the original House Majority PAC release →
Sponsorship and limitations
The release is from a Democratic-aligned political committee, not an independent election authority. Its public page does not provide a full questionnaire, sample-design explanation or margin of sampling error. Those details are not invented here. The original release was rechecked October 16, 2026 and confirms the historical results and fieldwork dates. Missing methodological details remain unverified. This is a verified historical poll, not a claim that no newer survey exists.
What the numbers mean
The reported gap describes this sample during its fieldwork period. It is not a predicted winning margin. Without comparable additional surveys, it cannot establish movement over time. Candidate favorability and vote preference are different measures and should not be combined.
Election calendar
The general election is November 3, 2026. Consult the official state calendar for voting information and your county election office for local arrangements.
Official New York election information →
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